Tuesday, December 12, 2006

The Power within

This is not about any spiritual stuff as most of u will misunderstand from the title. I was referring to the power within each atom, each nucleus- the nuclear power. I am not going to bore the readers(if there are any) telling u guys about the technology and science behind nuclear power. Instead lets go directly to the talk of the day : Henry J Hyde India US Peaceful Atomic Energy Co operation act of 2006 (PAEC).
The idea of such a co operation was born during the 2005 visit of Bush to India and to remind you all the corporation between India and US on the nuclear front ended with our 1971 Budha smile's test. After that for 35 odd years India was in a nuclear winter, completely isolated from all other nuclear powers.(We cant say complete isolation because our old allie Russia was always with us both in terms of fuel and technology). India with Russia's backing have build up 22 nuclear reactors till the date which are generating electricity and meeting 3% of our power needs. But as we all are aware , we have been growing quite fast for last few years and with our stock markets, our energy needs also have been growing. So it became indespensible for our PM to ask Bush the ticket to return to the nuclear club. I completely accept his logic in that. We all know that we dont have enough thermal resources (potrol or quality coal) to generate power, neither are our depleating hydal resources sufficient to meet the new requirement. So only remaining feasible resource for quatified production is the atom.

Now lets look into the deal that the US have put forward. The plus in this deal is that it opens the doors of IAEA and the nuclear supplier's group and India will be able to buy Uranium for its reactors. In return India will became a full ally of US and help her in preventing proliferation of "nuclear poison" around the world.(and learn to forget that 99% of all the nuclear weapons are with big guys of IAEA). India will also get nuclear fission technology (supposed to be latest.......who knows ??) .
And the negatives: First is that US is not going to give India any enrichment or re processing technologies so we will have to figure out a way ourselves to complete our nuclear cycle. Second is that our credibility of being a good ally will be assessed every year by the US president and he will have the power to suggest to the NSG to discontinue our status as a peaceful nuclear nation. Thirdly we need to get the go ahead of IAEA and NSG before 123 agreement starting real co operation materialises making it trouble some for us to go back to NSG again for any last minute victory in negotiations we make. Another big problem is that we will have to open up our civilian nuclear facilities for US inspectors if the IAEA finds it powerless to send its own inspectors(Guess this will happen often) and finally we wont be able to exportl any of military technologies(expect some low range primitive weapons) or test any more nuclear devices. (This clause is going to adversly effect our plans to export Brahmos)

Although I may appear to be against this deal, its not the real case. I was just being diplomatic and explaining the cons. I believe we should go ahead with this deal because most of these clauses which appear trecherous for us now can be forgotten easily with the changing circumstances of the business. The biggest reason why I am telling this is because this deal is going to open up the very attractive nuclear sector to US businessmen and once they have investments here, they will take care of the senate and congress and even the Presidents. Another reason is that we are in a fit and there is no other way out to retain our competative edge as a investment destination.
The nuclear power market of the world as we know is in crisis. With the majority public opinion aginst it, most of the biggies have withdrawn from this business. An ideal example is the GE which said good bye in early 90's. They cant be blamed, US, Canada , Europe and ofcourse Japan with their memories from the world war 2 hates any more nuclear reactors in their country. So it is the developing guys like India and China were the market exist if at all. No wonder US is succumbing to Indian pressures or are they really ............

9 comments:

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Anonymous said...

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no troubles i hope guessin who dis iz... not many other ppl write unitelligible english... :D

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Anonymous said...

hmm...yea..ok pretty much with the tide eh??..could put up some spicy stuff...you know these things that you've posted..people can get it from the newspapers...so..;)

Arjun Mohan said...

To dj_sai

Thanks for comments friend.......if you have really read the full article you wouldnt have told that u will get all these stuff from the newspaper. I regard your comment priceless and will take care in future to make the articles look like a bollywood screenplay.....keep commenting

Arjun Mohan said...

To Blah

Thanks 4 ur comments dude......I am trying to do things which I am good at rather than things which I want to be good at :-(....Also I hadbeen thinking about a blog covering my personal life and friends (not romantic ofcourse coz u know I am a practical guy and dont talk about imaginary worlds)...I was actually planning for a blog open to all our classmates where we can post stories about each other and ofcourse RGC is gonna be the star performer

Anonymous said...

Hello my dear friend

I happened to read your blog " the power with in " regarding India-US nuclear deal. I appreciate you for discussing such contemporary issues that can have far reaching effect. But it is advisable to simplify your language so that people other than cat pulees (like me) also feel comfortable.

Now coming to your blog, you virtually supported the deal by saying that after the passage of the bill American businessmen will take care the deal. I cannot say anything authoritatively about the businessmen intervention in the deal.

As far as India is concerned I don't feel like neglecting some extraneous conditions, which are opposed by both BJP and LEFT parties.



Your words..

And the negatives: First is that US is not going to give India any enrichment or re processing technologies so we will have to figure out a way ourselves to complete our nuclear cycle. Second is that our credibility of being a good ally will be assessed every year by the US president and he will have the power to suggest to the NSG to discontinue our status as a peaceful nuclear nation. Thirdly we need to get the go ahead of IAEA and NSG before 123 agreement starting real co operation materialises making it trouble some for us to go back to NSG again for any last minute victory in negotiations we make. Another big problem is that we will have to open up our civilian nuclear facilities for US inspectors if the IAEA finds it powerless to send its own inspectors(Guess this will happen often) and finally we wont be able to exportl any of military technologies(expect some low range primitive weapons) or test any more nuclear devices. (This clause is going to adversly effect our plans to export Brahmos)





But you have not mentioned some of the scariest clauses, they includes.



1) India's foreign policies will be assessed every year

2) No assurance was given about uninterrupted fuel supply for our reactions.

3) Indian will not be allowed to buy nuclear fuel from other countries of NSG even if US stops supply by their own wish.

4) India was asked to rethink about the bilateral relationship between Iran (no country cannot be allowed to breach India's strategic policy, but by doing this US explicitly intervened in our strategic policy.)

5) As you said India would not be allowed to resend or reprocess used nuclear fuel. American under secretary of state said that that would be discussed in the days ahead.

6) Effectively India will be forbidden from conducting nuclear tests even of the kind that are permitted by CTBT and India's weapon program also be assessed yearly.


Personally I suggest( verute ezhutiyata karyatil edukkanda) rejecting this deal instead of accepting such humiliating conditions. And purposefully we can't neglect the facts that once Iraq was their ally, afghan was there ally.

Arjun Mohan said...

I appreciate ur take on this and ur apprehensions about our foriegn policy remaining independent. Lets take the 1st point of assessing India's foriegn policy, do u think now it is not assessed.....US assesses every countries foriegn & domestic policies (never heard of CIA) and it is only based on a good business eye that they support and withdraw support.
About assurances of uninterrupted fuel supply, do u think any body in today changing world can assure u abt anything for even next 2 years. Forget it.
3rd point is exactly what I was pointing to. If the deal is struck through, in next few years there will be so much foriegn players from various NSGs that these countries will have to think twice before severing ties.
4th is a misinterpretation by you. The newly filed act doesnt have any referral to anything of this kind.
5th is a point to regarded, but we have to be happy that we are free to do whatever we want with the fuel and can even re process it if we develope technology of our own or some other country helps us (unlike Tarapur)
6th is a point of concern but lets wait for the 123 to be in place. Bear in mind what Manmohan said "I wont go down in the history as a PM who comprised our foriegn policy"


So lets hope for the best

sandeep.a.mjy said...

Hi Arjun

Sorry for the delay let me come to our discussion directly.



1) did india ever allow a foreign agency to come here and assess our nuclear or defense technology ( bury your CIA )

2)I admit your point on uninterrupted supply. nobody can assure anthing even for one year in this fast changing world. but in the agreement there is no provision to handle abrupt stoppage in fuel supply, this interruption is possible and can make big economic loss to india.

3)do you want india to sacrifice its indigenous fission technology for accepting this deal. ( india was asked to stop production of fission fuel )

4)in case of a further nuclear test india will have to return all equipments and reactors to america which india gains as a result of the deal. that will also cause a big economic loss

5)another very important point is obligation. india will have to back america in some vital international issues.



( these are some concerns made by our great scientist (dont include sharma or babu)fathers of our nuclear science )





My dear friend dont you feel these conditions or clauses himiliated???????

Arjun Mohan said...

Sorry Manjeri for the long delay, I was busy with work. Getting into discussion:
1. No country allows foriegn agencies in their soil deliberately. It happens. For eg: Read some of the CIA or KGB previous directors biography who have served during the Sanjay Gnadhi era. It will tell u our country was for sale then.

2. This is exactly the point I was making all till now. US can never stop the supplies suddenly coz there will b a lot of business men screaming. We are in a sorld driven by economics

3. Your wrong here. We dont have any fission research, its the thorium enrichment research and fast breeder reactors that US told us to stop developing and I too believe we should fight with all our might to remove this provision. Because India houses 80% of thorium in the world and a technolgy using this will change our lifes.

4. Why do we need nuclear weapons dude? We should work towards a worls without any weapons

5. Now this is a prejudical and skeptical perspective. Too narrow minded. Once the deal is through I dont even think we have to continue voting against Iran

I hope that settles u for the time being